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Purvin & Gertz Releases Global LNG Outlook10 June 2008
London, June 10, 2008
Purvin & Gertz announces the release of the Global LNG Outlook, a new service providing insight into the short-term global LNG market. The cornerstone of the service is a quarterly publication that will assess the impact of changing LNG market fundamentals and provide an in-depth perspective of the drivers of the global LNG market on a monthly basis over the next 2-3 years. The service will determine the impact of weather, competing fuel prices and economic growth on gas demand, the competition to LNG from domestic and imported pipeline supply, the impact of movements in and out of gas storage and the effect of new gas liquefaction capacity additions on the short-term LNG market. The Purvin & Gertz approach to this service is to analyze and understand the fundamental factors driving international gas and LNG markets and to assess their impact in terms of spot LNG and traded gas price reaction, quantification of flexible supply availability and the resulting determination of expected LNG trade patterns.
The global LNG industry is evolving rapidly and is unrecognizable when compared to the industry in existence only a short time ago. A swathe of flexible supply with destination optionality is seeking and competing for the market of highest return. As new trade patterns emerge, identifying key trends and issues in an increasingly complex global natural gas market has never been more relevant.
Chris Holmes said, “By the end of 2010 global gas liquefaction capacity is scheduled to expand by nearly 90 million tonnes or 45% of end-2007 capacity with much of this expansion occurring in the Middle East. This would suggest that global LNG trading patterns will change with the result that recent West-to-East trade will be reversed and marginal LNG output possibly looking for a market. However, if nothing else, recent experiences in the LNG industry have taught us that nothing is certain. Gas liquefaction plant construction delays and operating problems continue to cast a cloud over future LNG supply availability while the level of future demand continues to be impacted by major events such as nuclear power plant availability in Japan and hydropower output in Spain. The only thing of which we can be certain is that the future will be uncertain. For this reason we see a need in the global LNG market for a service of this nature. Unlike many other publications that provide a high level, anecdotal analysis of global gas markets, Global LNG Outlook provides a unique, in-depth perspective on all aspects of the short-term global LNG market. This is achieved by detailed analysis, our industry expertise, use of our comprehensive in-house databases and application of our existing modeling capabilities.”
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